Nations League action continues + more: this week's trending markets

Spain leads the Nations League market while the Dodgers and Brewers lead the World Series race. This week's Alpha also tracks a $350M HYPE unlock, NEAR's 100%+ month, and earnings from Applied Digital, PepsiCo, plus AMD's $1 trillion run.

Spain's unbeaten run, the MLB playoffs, and the NBA's October 20 tip-off lead this week's prediction markets. Hyperliquid's HYPE token sits just below its record as a team unlock lands, and three tokenized stocks report or hit milestones.

MetaMask Alpha is MetaMask's market digest. Context, data, signal—not financial advice.

Prediction markets: Spain's streak, a Dodgers–Brewers race, and the NBA tips off

UEFA Nations League. World Cup holders Spain won their first three Nations League group matches: 3-2 at England on September 26, 4-1 over Croatia on September 29, and 3-1 over Czechia on October 3, extending a record unbeaten run to 41 games. England beat Croatia 7-0 on October 3, the largest win in the team's Nations League history. Spain and Croatia meet again Tuesday, October 6 at 2:45 pm ET. As of the start of the match on October 6, the 2026–27 Winner market priced Spain at 35.5%, France at 22.5%, England at 17.5%, and Portugal at 12%. The market is thin next to the others in this issue, at about $131,000 traded since it opened.

MLB World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers, two-time defending champions, lead the 2026 World Series Champion market at 28.5%, with more than $43 million traded since it opened. The Milwaukee Brewers, who finished with baseball's best regular-season record at 103–59, price at 25.2%. The Brewers lead the Padres 2-0 in their NLDS after Jackson Chourio's walk-off single in Game 2, and the Dodgers–Braves series is tied 1-1. Both Game 3s are Tuesday. Tampa Bay moved from 12.2% to 20.1% between the start of October 5 and October 6, which puts it third. A Dodgers title would be the first three-peat since the 1998–2000 Yankees.

NBA Champion. The 2026–27 season opens Tuesday, October 20, when the Knicks raise their championship banner against the 76ers and Oklahoma City visits San Antonio in a rematch of last season's Western Conference finals. The Champion market, with about $23.6 million traded, prices the Spurs at 22.5%, the Thunder at 18.5%, the Knicks at 12.5%, the 76ers at 11.1%, and the Timberwolves at 5.2%. For how the season-long markets are structured, see MetaMask's NBA prediction markets guide.

Odds are from Polymarket as of October 6; every Predictions price moves continuously. New to these markets? MetaMask's explainers cover what Polymarket is and how decentralized prediction markets work and the core terminology.

Perps: HYPE's unlock, Bitcoin's anniversary, and NEAR doubles

HYPE. Hyperliquid's native token traded near $94 on October 5, about 4% below its all-time high of $97.99 on September 23. The October team unlock is 3.75 million HYPE, worth about $350 million at that price. Hyperliquid Labs co-founder iliensinc said the full amount is covered by an over-the-counter agreement with a single institutional buyer rather than sold on public order books.

Bitcoin. BTC traded around $86,000 on MetaMask on October 5, up about 8% over the past month. October 6 marks one year since its all-time high of about $126,000, and the price sits roughly 32% below that level.

NEAR. The token of the AI-focused NEAR Protocol, gained more than 100% over the past 30 days and traded around $5 as of October 5.

Perps involve leverage, which amplifies both gains and losses, and positions can be liquidated. If perps mechanics are new, start with MetaMask's beginner's guide to perpetual futures and the rundown of key perps concepts.

Tokenized stocks: two earnings reports and AMD's $1 trillion run

Applied Digital (APLDon). Tokenized Applied Digital tracks a stock whose underlying company reports fiscal Q1 results after the close on Wednesday, October 7, with a call at 5:00 pm ET. APLD closed at $25.38 on October 5, within a 52-week range of $19.00 to $50.72 and down about 7% over the past month. Analysts expect a loss of roughly $0.30 per share; revenue estimates run from about $116 million to $135 million depending on the source, against $258.7 million in the prior quarter.

PepsiCo (PEPon). Tokenized PepsiCo tracks a stock whose underlying company reports Q3 results before the open on Thursday, October 8. PEP closed at $125.89 on October 5, near the bottom of a 52-week range of $124.21 to $171.48 and down about 9% over the past month. Analysts expect earnings of about $2.30 per share on roughly $25 billion in revenue.

AMD (AMDon). Tokenized AMD tracks a stock that closed at a record $633.91 on October 2, for a market cap of about $1.03 trillion. AMD first crossed $1 trillion on September 21 and is up more than 180% in 2026. Second-quarter revenue was $11.54 billion, up 50% from a year earlier.

Tokenized stocks offer economic exposure to the underlying asset, not ownership or voting rights. Not available to US users; regional limits apply. For the mechanics, MetaMask explains how tokenized real-world assets work, what Ondo Stocks are, and how to trade RWAs in the wallet.

MetaMaskMetaMask, formerly Consensys Software Inc, is the world's largest self-custodial financial platform, giving people a single place to hold, spend, save and grow their money across both crypto and traditional assets. The company is building the consumer platform where that happens, bringing payments, savings, investing and digital assets together in one seamless experience. Having grown from the world's most widely used self-custodial wallet, MetaMask gives users direct control over their money and assets, with reach across approximately 190 countries. MetaMask has played a foundational role in Ethereum's growth since 2016. Today, MetaMask sits at the center of the onchain economy, building the operating system for Open Money and putting people in full control of their financial lives.Read all articles

MetaMask, formerly Consensys Software Inc, is the world's largest self-custodial financial platform, giving people a single place to hold, spend, save and grow their money across both crypto and traditional assets. The company is building the consumer platform where that happens, bringing payments, savings, investing and digital assets together in one seamless experience. Having grown from the world's most widely used self-custodial wallet, MetaMask gives users direct control over their money and assets, with reach across approximately 190 countries. MetaMask has played a foundational role in Ethereum's growth since 2016. Today, MetaMask sits at the center of the onchain economy, building the operating system for Open Money and putting people in full control of their financial lives.