With the AI IPO roadshow underway, reports say it's oversubscribed multiple times. The pre-IPO perp is moving, and Polymarket odds have moved toward pricing above the range.
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A day into the roadshow, Bloomberg reports Anthropic's IPO is oversubscribed multiple times. The pre-IPO perp was near $105, and Polymarket odds have moved toward pricing above the range.
Anthropic launched its IPO roadshow on Tuesday, November 10, with an amended registration statement that filled in the two blanks left in its October 26 S-1: share count and price range. The offering is 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78 each. A day later, Bloomberg reported orders multiple times the number of shares available. The trade.xyz pre-IPO perp on Anthropic shares was marked at $105.43, about 35% above the top of the range. All market figures below are as of November 11, 2026, 17:23 UTC unless noted.
The offering terms
Shares and price. Anthropic is selling 801,351,354 Class A shares, and existing stockholders are selling another 23,648,646, for 825 million in total, according to Amendment No. 2 to the S-1. The expected price is $70 to $78. Underwriters have a 30-day option to buy up to 123.75 million more shares. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the deal alongside 20 other banks, and the Nasdaq Global Select ticker is ANT.
Proceeds. At the top of the range, the offering raises about $64.4 billion before underwriting discounts, including about $1.8 billion going to selling stockholders rather than Anthropic. Separately, AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and TSMC have agreed to buy $26.0 billion of non-voting Class N stock in a private placement at the IPO price, which closes right after the offering. Together, that's up to about $90.4 billion.
Valuation. Using the filing's share counts, the range values Anthropic at about $916 billion to $1.02 trillion on shares outstanding after the offering. On a fully diluted basis, which adds stock options and restricted stock units, the top of the range works out to about $1.4 trillion, per CNBC. Anthropic's last private round, in May, valued it at $965 billion.
How the valuation talk moved. Valuation chatter around Anthropic reached $2 trillion in early October. On November 6, Bloomberg reported that prospective investors were discussing $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion after a selloff in AI stocks.
Day two: demand reports
Oversubscription. On Wednesday, November 11, Bloomberg reported that orders exceeded the shares available multiple times over, driven by large "anchor-size" indications of interest. Offering details remain subject to change.
Secondary activity. The same report said some existing investors are marketing portions of their IPO allocations to other buyers, and some pre-IPO stakeholders are offering exposure through special-purpose vehicles.
Investor outreach. Anthropic is planning a livestreamed investor event on Friday, November 13, with CEO Dario Amodei and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, according to the same report.
The Anthropic IPO timeline: confirmed vs. reported
Confirmed. The public S-1 was filed Monday, October 26, and SEC rules require a confidential filer to go public at least 15 days before its roadshow. The roadshow began on the first eligible day, Tuesday, November 10. The first amendment, filed November 2, added third-quarter results. The second, filed November 10, added the price range. As of November 11, 17:23 UTC, no further amendment had been filed.
Reported. CNBC, citing people familiar with the deal, reported that Anthropic plans to begin trading on Thursday, November 19, with a retail allocation of about 20%, against a typical 5% to 10%. Anthropic hasn't announced a pricing or trading date.
What the amended S-1 adds
Third-quarter revenue. Revenue was $17.0 billion for the three months ended September 30, and $33.2 billion for the first nine months of 2026, up 1,206% from $2.5 billion a year earlier. The filing repeats that it doesn't expect growth to continue at comparable rates.
Losses, read closely. The nine-month net loss was $104.0 billion. Of that, $94.3 billion was a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs, a non-cash charge that grows as the company's valuation rises. The operating loss for the nine months was $1.3 billion, against $5.2 billion a year earlier. Operating cash flow was positive $6.6 billion.
Compute commitments. As of and after September 30, purchase commitments and leases total about $900.9 billion, substantially all for compute and infrastructure. About $70.7 billion of that is due within 12 months. The figure includes agreements to spend up to $120.5 billion through 2029 with SpaceXAI, a SpaceX subsidiary, at about $3.1 billion a month once capacity is fully delivered in December. That ties the year's two largest IPOs together financially. For the SpaceX side, see our SPCX IPO coverage.
Governance. Class A shares carry one vote each, and Class N shares carry none except as required by law. A single Class F share, held by an entity of Anthropic's seven co-founders, carries 50.1% of total voting power on most matters. Because the Long-Term Benefit Trust's Class T share elects a board majority, Anthropic is a "controlled company" under Nasdaq rules. A Class T share held by the Long-Term Benefit Trust elects directors who will make up a majority of the board.
Lock-ups. Directors, officers, and current and former employees can sell up to 10% of their locked shares from the first trading day and another 35% after fiscal 2026 earnings, with the rest locked until first-quarter 2027 earnings or 180 days. Certain other stockholders get staggered releases on the 27th, 48th, 62nd, and 76th days after the prospectus date, and holders of more than 0.5% get small early releases starting on day 27. Co-founders are locked for up to 365 days, though they can sell up to 29% at first-quarter 2027 earnings or day 180.
Anthropic's pre-IPO perp vs. the price range
What the contract is. The trade.xyz Anthropic contract (xyz:ANT) references one Anthropic Class A share and is settled in USDC. Before listing, its price comes from trading on the venue within a ±50% discovery band. At listing, it converts to a standard perp tracking the Nasdaq price. It is synthetic price exposure, not ownership of shares.
Where it trades against the range. At $105.43, the contract was 35% above the $78 top of the range, 42% above the $74 midpoint, and 51% above the $70 bottom. Multiplied by the filing's post-offering share count, $105.43 implies roughly $1.38 trillion on shares outstanding. On November 10 at 15:25 UTC, it was at $98.34.
The price path. The contract opened at $138 on October 26 and closed that UTC day at $114.35. It fell to $93.06 on November 6, the day Bloomberg reported the lower valuation talk, and to $90.37 on November 10 in the hour the price range was filed. On November 11 it reached $107.93, its highest since November 6.
Volume and open interest. About $58 million traded in the 24 hours to 17:23 UTC, and roughly $390 million has traded since launch. Open interest was about $107 million, up from about $93 million a day earlier and about $41 million on October 31. Funding stayed close to zero, meaning neither longs nor shorts were paying a meaningful premium to hold positions (see how funding rates work).
The precedent. SpaceX's pre-IPO perp closed near $163 two days before listing, about 21% above the $135 IPO price, and SpaceX closed its first session at $160.95. Across seven 2026 listings, Unchained found pre-IPO perps missed the opening trade by about 25% on average. For how perps differ from holding the asset, see perpetual futures vs. spot.
Polymarket's Anthropic IPO odds, a day into the roadshow
Polymarket's Anthropic markets saw about $1.3 million in combined volume in the 24 hours to November 11, 17:23 UTC. Several shifted toward a final price above the filed range.
Valuation at the IPO price. "What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?" resolves on the fully diluted valuation at the final offering price. A day earlier, $1.25–$1.50 trillion led at 81%. It now sits at 47.1%, with $1.50–$1.75 trillion at 46.3%. Scaling CNBC's top-of-range figure, a fully diluted valuation above $1.5 trillion would correspond to a price above roughly $83 a share, higher than the current range.
Raise size. In "How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?", under $65 billion fell from 77.4% to 37.9%, with $65–$75 billion at 32.5% and $75–$85 billion at 18.2%. The base deal raises $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion within the filed range, so a larger raise would require pricing above the range or a bigger offering. The market excludes the underwriters' option.
First-day close. "Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap" ($5.3 million lifetime volume, about $677,000 in the past 24 hours) resolves on shares outstanding times the first-day closing price. $1.25–$1.5 trillion led at 35.7%, followed by $1.5–$1.75 trillion at 27.4% and under $1.25 trillion at 22.6%. The perp's roughly $1.38 trillion falls inside the leading bracket.
Timing. In "Anthropic IPO Date," November 19 rose to 85.4%, from 70.9% a day earlier.
New to these markets? See what Polymarket is and prediction market terms explained.
Where and how pre-IPO and IPO markets trade
Pre-IPO perpetual futures, which track a private company's expected share price until it lists, trade on several crypto venues, including builder-deployed markets on Hyperliquid and some centralized exchanges. Prediction markets on IPO timing and valuation trade on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Some self-custodial wallets also offer native integrations. For example, MetaMask Perps is powered by Hyperliquid and available on Mobile and Extension, and MetaMask Predictions is powered by Polymarket and available on Mobile. Perpetual futures use leverage, which amplifies both gains and losses and can lead to liquidation (the automatic closing of a position when its collateral falls below the required margin). Regulations and availability differ by platform and region, and MetaMask Perps isn't available in the US, the UK, Ontario (Canada), Belgium, or sanctioned countries. See MetaMask Perps and MetaMask Prediction Markets for a broader overview of how these products work.
Disclaimer: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular digital asset or to employ any specific investment strategy.
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