How to trade prediction markets with MetaMask Agent Wallet: 9 top tips

How to trade prediction markets with MetaMask Agent Wallet: 9 top tips

Your agent can bet on a prediction market from one sentence. Here's how funding, quoting, order types, and redemption actually work under mm predict.

• MetaMask
• The prediction markets surface, broken down
• 1. Run setup once, then fund a wallet that's separate from your spot balance
• 2. Know that the order, not the deposit or the redemption, is what stays off Guard Mode's radar
• 3. --limit-price previews, --price places—they aren't interchangeable
• 4. Override the tick size only when the default doesn't fit
• 5. Match the order type to how badly a fill needs to happen now
• 6. Check liquidity and geoblocking before sizing a bet, not after
• 7. There's no dry run—a quote is the closest preview
• 8. Redemption is a separate, explicit step—and it's the second real transaction in the workflow
• 9. Use history and positions for different jobs, and match the sort field to the query
• What Agent Wallet doesn't do for prediction markets

MetaMask Agent Wallet trades Polymarket prediction markets through the mm predict command set. A trader asks their agent to check odds, size a bet, or claim and cash out winnings in plain language, and the agent routes that request to the commands that fund a dedicated deposit wallet, quote an order, place it, redeem it once resolved, and withdraw the proceeds.

Like perpetual futures trading on Agent Wallet, and unlike swaps, the in-between step is the one that happens off the books: placing and cancelling an order run off-chain against Polymarket's central limit order book, while funding the deposit wallet and claiming resolved winnings are the two legs that behave like real transactions MetaMask evaluates.

That split is easy to miss in a single prompt. "Bet $20 on the Fed cutting rates" carries unstated assumptions about price, order type, and how firmly that price needs to hold—assumptions a tapped-through UI would surface as separate screens, but a sentence collapses into one request. This piece covers the details worth making explicit before an agent acts on that sentence.

This is a trading-mechanics guide, not a prediction markets primer. For what prediction markets are and how pricing reflects probability, see what is Polymarket. For order books, spreads, liquidity, and resolution mechanics, see essential prediction market concepts and how prediction market pricing works. For the wallet category itself, see what is an agentic wallet and how agentic wallets work. For the same deposit-versus-order distinction in a different asset class, see how to trade perps and how to swap and bridge tokens with MetaMask Agent Wallet.

One distinction worth making upfront: mm predict is the Agent Wallet CLI's own Polymarket integration, built for developers and agents. It's a separate product from MetaMask Predictions, the consumer-facing feature built into MetaMask Mobile. Both trade on Polymarket, but they're different surfaces with different commands, and this piece covers only the CLI.

The prediction markets surface, broken down

These are the commands a prediction market workflow leans on. Knowing the surface makes it easier to phrase a request that lands the way it's intended.

What you ask your agent

What runs

What it does

"Set me up to trade prediction markets"

mm predict setup --wait

One-time setup for the dedicated predict deposit wallet

"Put $50 into my prediction market wallet"

mm predict deposit --amount 50 --wait

Converts Polygon USDC.e in your wallet into pUSD in the predict deposit wallet

"Find markets about the next Fed rate decision"

mm predict markets search ""

Searches Polymarket markets by keyword

"What would 20 YES shares on that market cost"

mm predict quote --token-id --side buy --size 20

Previews order cost without placing it

"Bet 10 USDC on YES at 62 cents"

mm predict place --token-id --side buy --size 10 --price 0.62

Places a live order on Polymarket's order book

"Show my open prediction market positions"

mm predict positions

Lists current holdings

"Redeem my winning bets"

mm predict redeem --all --wait

Claims payouts for resolved, winning positions

"Move my winnings back to my wallet"

mm predict withdraw --amount

Withdraws pUSD from the predict deposit wallet

With that basic understanding, here are 9 tips for using MetaMask Agent Wallet to trade prediction markets.

1. Run setup once, then fund a wallet that's separate from your spot balance

Prediction market trading routes through a dedicated predict deposit wallet, not your main wallet balance. The first-time flow is mm predict setup --wait, followed by mm predict deposit --amount --wait, which converts Polygon USDC.e held in your wallet into pUSD inside that deposit wallet. Skipping setup before depositing can produce a bare JsonRpcError: execution reverted rather than a clear error code.

Two related failure modes worth recognizing: PREDICT_INSUFFICIENT_GAS means the wallet needs native POL on Polygon to cover the deposit transaction's gas, and PREDICT_INSUFFICIENT_ALLOWANCE means the token allowance needs repairing with mm predict approve before a deposit or order can go through. Both are one command away from resolved, but only once they've been identified correctly.

Geoblocking is also most likely to surface right here, before a single order gets placed—if the account's region is restricted, setup or deposit is typically where that shows up as a failure, not later at the order step. Check mm predict geoblock before funding rather than after (more in tip 6), and don't treat a null result as a clean bill of health: the geoblock check can return null for a restricted account, and the agent doesn't reliably distinguish that from an explicit clear today, even though it means the same thing operationally. Treat an unclear result the same as a blocked one until confirmed otherwise.

2. Know that the order, not the deposit or the redemption, is what stays off Guard Mode's radar

This is the same pattern as perpetual futures trading on Agent Wallet, not the pattern from swaps—but for prediction markets it's the middle step that's off-chain, not just one end. MetaMask's outflow policy names "deposits (for example, to Uniswap, Polymarket, or Hyperliquid)" as what counts toward the rolling 24-hour outflow limit—Polymarket is called out by name, the same way Hyperliquid is. That means the funding transaction into the predict deposit wallet is what Guard Mode's outflow limit, allowlists, and 2-factor authentication evaluate. mm predict place and mm predict cancel are synchronous calls against Polymarket's order book, not EVM transactions—so they aren't checked against those guardrails regardless of size.

Redemption is worth calling out separately: mm predict redeem is documented with --wait, the same job-based pattern used for mm predict setup and mm predict deposit, which the architecture page describes as the signature of a signing or transaction request that goes through simulation, threat scanning, and policy evaluation. That's a strong signal that claiming a resolved position is a real onchain transaction, not an off-chain order-book action like placing or cancelling—so treat the redemption step with the same care as the deposit, not the same way as an order.

Threat scanning is the one guardrail that doesn't split by leg the way the outflow limit does: it applies in both Guard Mode and Beast Mode, per the trading modes comparison—only the outflow limit and allowlists are Guard-Mode-only. This applies to server-wallet mode; trading modes don't apply to bring-your-own-wallet setups. The practical upshot: a trader sizing a single order doesn't need to think about the outflow limit at the moment of placing it, but funding the deposit wallet, and later redeeming a win, are the two moments where that discipline still applies.

3. --limit-price previews, --price places—they aren't interchangeable

mm predict quote takes an optional --limit-price to preview cost at a specific price. mm predict place doesn't accept that flag at all; it requires --price, the worst fill price per share a trader will accept, on a 0-to-1 scale. They look similar and both shape cost, but one is a preview-only input and the other is a live order's execution boundary—copying a quote's flags directly into a place command will fail rather than silently do the same thing.

4. Override the tick size only when the default doesn't fit

Both mm predict quote and mm predict place accept --tick-size to override a market's default price increment. Valid values are 0.1, 0.01, 0.005, 0.0025, 0.001, and 0.0001; omitting the flag defaults to the CLOB's own tick size for that token. Passing anything outside that list returns INVALID_TICK_SIZE. For most markets the default is the right call—this flag exists for the cases where a trader needs finer or coarser price granularity than the market's default allows.

5. Match the order type to how badly a fill needs to happen now

mm predict place defaults to GTC (good-till-cancelled), which sits on the book until filled or cancelled. GTD (good-till-date) requires an --expiration timestamp. FOK (fill-or-kill) and FAK (fill-and-kill) both demand an immediate fill—FOK all-or-nothing, FAK for whatever fills immediately with the rest cancelled—and neither can be combined with --post-only, which separately rejects an order that would cross the book at all.

A FOK order that can't fully fill at the requested price returns PREDICT_ORDER_NOT_FILLED, with a hint to adjust --size or --price, check the book, or switch to GTC instead. A prompt like "buy this only if you can fill the whole thing right now" is asking for FOK; "get me into this position eventually, at this price or better" is asking for GTC, and conflating the two produces a rejected order instead of the patience the trader actually wanted.

6. Check liquidity and geoblocking before sizing a bet, not after

mm predict book returns the order book for a token, which is the way to see whether a given size is realistic before placing it—PREDICT_ORDER_SIZE_TOO_SMALL fires when a request falls below the exchange minimum, and its hint points back to raising --size.

Separately, mm predict geoblock checks Polymarket's geoblock status for the account's IP before any money moves. Two error codes reflect this enforcement happening at the Polymarket layer, not the wallet layer: PREDICT_GEOBLOCKED when the region is blocked per the geoblock API, and PREDICT_UNAVAILABLE_FOR_LEGAL_REASONS when Polymarket returns an HTTP 451 legal restriction. Neither is a MetaMask policy decision or something Guard Mode versus Beast Mode changes—it's Polymarket's own regional availability, surfaced through the CLI.

7. There's no dry run—a quote is the closest preview

Unlike mm perps open, which accepts --dry-run to validate an order without signing it, mm predict place has no equivalent flag in the commands reference. The closest thing to rehearsing an order is mm predict quote, which previews cost at a given price and size without touching the book. That's a genuine preview of pricing, not a simulation of whether the order would fill—a quote can look right and the market can still move before the actual place call lands.

8. Redemption is a separate, explicit step—and it's the second real transaction in the workflow

A resolved, winning position doesn't convert to spendable balance in one step. mm predict redeem list shows which resolved positions are currently redeemable, and mm predict redeem --wait or mm predict redeem --all --wait claims one or all of them—but that only moves the winnings into pUSD sitting inside the predict deposit wallet, not back to a trader's main wallet. PREDICT_REDEEM_NONE and PREDICT_REDEEM_NOT_FOUND are the two error codes worth recognizing here: the first means nothing is currently redeemable, and the second means the specific condition ID passed isn't a valid redeem target—usually a sign to check redeem list again rather than retry the same ID.

Getting that pUSD out to spendable balance is a further, separate step: mm predict withdraw --amount . Skipping it after redeeming is a common way to think a bet has "cashed out" when the winnings are still sitting in the predict wallet. PREDICT_WITHDRAW_ZERO fires on a zero or missing amount, and PREDICT_WITHDRAW_INSUFFICIENT_BALANCE fires when the predict wallet doesn't hold enough pUSD to cover the requested withdrawal.

Redeem, like the deposit, behaves like a real transaction rather than an off-chain order-book action—it's documented with the same --wait job pattern as mm predict setup and mm predict deposit, unlike mm predict place or mm predict cancel, which never take it. Treat it with the same care described in tip 2.

9. Use history and positions for different jobs, and match the sort field to the query

mm predict positions shows what's currently open. mm predict history is a separate, closed-book view: it defaults to closed positions with signed pnl, and switching to --type trade or --type redeem shows fill or claim activity instead. --start and --end only filter when --type is trade or redeem—they're silently inapplicable to the default closed view. Sort fields are also type-specific: closed positions sort by realizedpnl, title, price, avgprice, or timestamp, while trade and redeem activity sort by timestamp, tokens, or cash. Passing a sort field from the wrong list returns PREDICT_HISTORY_INVALID_SORT_BY—a request for "my biggest wins, sorted by size" needs to specify which of those two vocabularies it means.

What Agent Wallet doesn't do for prediction markets

Being clear about the boundary is more useful than implying a wider one.

mm predict isn't MetaMask's consumer Predictions feature on Mobile—it's a separate, CLI-driven integration with Polymarket built for developers and agents, with its own commands and its own dedicated deposit wallet. A trader coming from the Mobile app shouldn't expect the two to share balances, history, or settings.

Agent Wallet doesn't bypass or override Polymarket's regional restrictions. Geoblocking and legal-availability checks happen at the Polymarket layer and apply the same way regardless of wallet mode, trading mode, or how the request is phrased.

Winnings aren't redeemed automatically on resolution. A resolved, winning position sits as redeemable until mm predict redeem runs—there's no background sweep that claims it on the trader's behalf.

There's no built-in copy-trading, portfolio-mirroring, or custom order logic layered on top of mm predict—each command call is a single, explicit action. Traders wanting standing logic like that can build it as a plugin, a beta feature that lets an installed npm package add new commands to the CLI under consent-gated capabilities, but that's a build-it-yourself path rather than something Agent Wallet ships with.

Frequently asked questions about trading prediction markets with MetaMask Agent Wallet

• No. Both trade on Polymarket, but they're separate products. MetaMask Predictions is the consumer feature built into MetaMask Mobile; mm predict is the Agent Wallet CLI's own command set for developers and agents, with a separate deposit wallet and no shared balances or history with the Mobile feature.

No. Both trade on Polymarket, but they're separate products. MetaMask Predictions is the consumer feature built into MetaMask Mobile; mm predict is the Agent Wallet CLI's own command set for developers and agents, with a separate deposit wallet and no shared balances or history with the Mobile feature.

• No. Placing and cancelling a prediction market order both happen off-chain against Polymarket's order book, so they aren't checked against Guard Mode's outflow limit, allowlists, or 2FA. Funding the deposit wallet is the EVM transaction those guardrails evaluate—the same pattern as perpetual futures, and the opposite of swaps, where the trade itself is the checked transaction. Redeeming a resolved position behaves like a second real transaction rather than an order-book action (it's documented with the same --wait job pattern as the deposit), so it's worth the same care, even though it isn't itself subject to the outflow limit, which tracks value leaving the wallet rather than winnings coming in.

No. Placing and cancelling a prediction market order both happen off-chain against Polymarket's order book, so they aren't checked against Guard Mode's outflow limit, allowlists, or 2FA. Funding the deposit wallet is the EVM transaction those guardrails evaluate—the same pattern as perpetual futures, and the opposite of swaps, where the trade itself is the checked transaction. Redeeming a resolved position behaves like a second real transaction rather than an order-book action (it's documented with the same --wait job pattern as the deposit), so it's worth the same care, even though it isn't itself subject to the outflow limit, which tracks value leaving the wallet rather than winnings coming in.

• --limit-price is a preview-only flag on mm predict quote. mm predict place doesn't accept it at all; it requires --price, the worst fill price per share the order will accept. They aren't interchangeable flags, even though both shape the cost of a trade.

--limit-price is a preview-only flag on mm predict quote. mm predict place doesn't accept it at all; it requires --price, the worst fill price per share the order will accept. They aren't interchangeable flags, even though both shape the cost of a trade.

• GTC (the default) sits on the book until filled or cancelled, and fits a trader willing to wait for a price. GTD adds an expiration. FOK and FAK both demand an immediate fill and suit a trader who only wants the trade if it can happen right now. --post-only rejects an order that would cross the book, and can't be combined with FOK or FAK.

GTC (the default) sits on the book until filled or cancelled, and fits a trader willing to wait for a price. GTD adds an expiration. FOK and FAK both demand an immediate fill and suit a trader who only wants the trade if it can happen right now. --post-only rejects an order that would cross the book, and can't be combined with FOK or FAK.

• Run mm predict geoblock to check the account's IP against Polymarket's own geoblock status before funding anything. PREDICT_GEOBLOCKED and PREDICT_UNAVAILABLE_FOR_LEGAL_REASONS both reflect restrictions enforced at the Polymarket layer, not a MetaMask wallet setting.

Run mm predict geoblock to check the account's IP against Polymarket's own geoblock status before funding anything. PREDICT_GEOBLOCKED and PREDICT_UNAVAILABLE_FOR_LEGAL_REASONS both reflect restrictions enforced at the Polymarket layer, not a MetaMask wallet setting.

• No, and redeeming isn't the last step either. A resolved, winning position becomes redeemable, not automatically claimed—run mm predict redeem list to see what's currently redeemable, then mm predict redeem <CONDITION_ID> --wait or --all --wait to claim it. That converts the position into pUSD inside the predict deposit wallet, not spendable balance in a trader's main wallet. Getting it there needs a further mm predict withdraw --amount <AMOUNT> call.

No, and redeeming isn't the last step either. A resolved, winning position becomes redeemable, not automatically claimed—run mm predict redeem list to see what's currently redeemable, then mm predict redeem <CONDITION_ID> --wait or --all --wait to claim it. That converts the position into pUSD inside the predict deposit wallet, not spendable balance in a trader's main wallet. Getting it there needs a further mm predict withdraw --amount <AMOUNT> call.

• More like the deposit. mm predict withdraw takes --wait, the same job-based pattern as mm predict setup, mm predict deposit, and mm predict redeem—unlike mm predict place and mm predict cancel, which are synchronous calls against Polymarket's order book. PREDICT_WITHDRAW_ZERO and PREDICT_WITHDRAW_INSUFFICIENT_BALANCE are its two dedicated error codes.

More like the deposit. mm predict withdraw takes --wait, the same job-based pattern as mm predict setup, mm predict deposit, and mm predict redeem—unlike mm predict place and mm predict cancel, which are synchronous calls against Polymarket's order book. PREDICT_WITHDRAW_ZERO and PREDICT_WITHDRAW_INSUFFICIENT_BALANCE are its two dedicated error codes.

• Not directly. mm predict place has no --dry-run equivalent. mm predict quote is the closest available preview—it prices an order at a given size and price without touching the book, though it doesn't simulate whether the order would actually fill.

Not directly. mm predict place has no --dry-run equivalent. mm predict quote is the closest available preview—it prices an order at a given size and price without touching the book, though it doesn't simulate whether the order would actually fill.

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