Union approves LA/Long Beach port strike; container rates still under pressure – October 28, 2026 Update

Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3%.
• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 9%.
• Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 3%.
• Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 8%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

• China – N. America weekly prices increased 4%.
• China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 12%.
• N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 7%.

Analysis

The container carrier march back through the Red Sea continues, with Alphaliner estimating nearly two-thirds of total Asia – Europe capacity is now restored. Especially of note is Israeli carrier ZIM’s announcement that it has resumed taking the Red Sea route for its joint Asia – US East Coast service with MSC, as the Houthis declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israel-linked vessels as recently as August.

Another typhoon rumbled through the Far East starting last week. Typhoon Champi closed container ports and airports in Taiwan on Friday, and threatened but mostly spared operations at East China ports before weakening as it continued on toward Japan.

The major Chinese container hubs continue their recovery from previous storm disruptions over the summer though most are still not completely back to normal. Congestion has been one factor keeping some pressure on container rates even as demand eases post peak season. Some vessel bunching from ships now taking the shorter Red Sea route and arriving ahead of schedule may be slowing the recovery.

Though demand is cool on Asia – Europe lanes carriers are scheduling rate increases for November, with prices already trending up since mid-month as congestion and blanked sailings assist carrier attempts at rate bumps for now. Asia – N. Europe prices climbed 3% to $3,551/FEU last week and rates to the Mediterranean increased 8% to $4,252/FEU. Nonetheless, some forwarders are already reporting carrier discounts and don’t expect additional increases to take.

Despite expectations that transpacific prices would cool post-Golden Week, rates climbed last week, increasing 3% to $8,368/FEU to the West Coast and 9% to a new high for the year of $10,565/FEU to the East Coast. Daily prices to the East Coast have receded so far this week but are still up about $200/FEU compared to last week. Some forwarders however report signs of cooling demand and space becoming more available, and still expect a seasonal easing in rates.

A local watchmen’s union at the ports of LA and Long Beach voted to authorize a strike, which could be called as soon as November 1st. Though it only represents about 2% of the workforce, the union provides security for a large share of terminals so a strike could have an outsized impact on operations. Labor disruptions would come on top of reports of existing delays for containers moving by rail.

The White House extended its trade truce with China in late September, pushing off the expiration date of the status quo for tariffs and other elements of the deal to early January. Though most in the industry assumed that US port call fees on China-linked vessels – also set for November 10th – would also be deferred, the fees are officially still on the books. Last week though the US Trade Representative released a request for comments regarding postponing the port call fees until January as well, suggesting that this policy will also be pushed off.

The USTR also recently said that it should complete its Section 301 investigations into excess manufacturing capacity by China and fifteen other countries by the end of the year, despite earlier reports that the studies were ready ahead of the September Trump-Xi meeting.

Current tariff levels on several countries including China are actually below the negotiated levels that will expire in January since duties introduced after the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs did not reach IEEPA levels for all trading partners. The excess capacity investigations are expected to recommend tariffs that would restore duties to IEEPA levels for China and others. If the investigation is wrapped up by the end of the year, it could still take another couple months – to allow the required comments and hearing period – until the administration could use the findings to introduce tariffs.

Air cargo rates out of China climbed last week by 4% to $7.13/kg to N. America and 12% to $4.35/kg to Europe as peak season looks to be underway. Daily rates so far this week show additional significant gains to N. America and a sharp increase in South East Asia – US prices, as seasonal demand stacks on top of already strong data center-driven volumes.

Freightos Terminal™: Real-time pricing dashboards to benchmark rates and track market trends.

Procure™: Streamlined procurement and cost savings with digital rate management and automated workflows.

Rate, Book, & Manage™: Real-time rate comparison, instant booking, and easy tracking at every shipment stage.

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group's FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what's happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.