MLB prediction markets

A trading map of baseball's 162 game season and October bracket, which markets run when, how the starting pitcher drives daily trading prices, and an exploration of regular season and playoff markets.

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What MLB prediction markets can you trade?
What moves MLB prediction market prices
How the 2026 MLB lockout deadline affects prediction markets
MLB key dates: 2026 postseason through 2027
How MLB prediction markets trade through the season
How and where to trade MLB prediction markets
MLB teams by league and division

MLB prediction markets are event contracts tied to Major League Baseball outcomes, priced between $0 and $1, where the price reflects the market's implied probability. A correct contract settles at $1 and an incorrect one at $0. These contracts cover the World Series winner, the American League (AL) and National League (NL) pennants, MVP and Cy Young Award winners, postseason qualification, and single game results.

Baseball is one of the major North American leagues where a single position player rarely decides a game, but a single pitcher often does. Pitchers drive pricing in almost every MLB prediction market. There are four things that make baseball markets behave differently from othersports prediction markets: the daily game schedule, the starting-pitcher effect, the short-series randomness of October, and, in 2026, an expiring labor agreement that could delay the 2027 season.

Disclaimer: This guide is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, not a solicitation, and not for UK audiences. Prediction markets are risky and not suitable for all users.

What MLB prediction markets can you trade?

Game result: which team wins a single game. With 30 teams each playing 162 regular-season games (2,430 in total), MLB produces more individual game markets than any other major US league, with up to 15 games on a full day from late March to late September.

Run totals: contracts on whether a game’s combined score lands over or under a set number of runs. Polymarket lists single over/under lines for full games and the first five innings, while Kalshi offers a ladder of over lines for each game. Run totals are especially sensitive to the starting pitchers, the ballpark, and the weather.

Player props: contracts on whether a player clears a statistical line in a single game, such as a starting pitcher’s strikeouts. Polymarket’s game markets go past the final score: its September 1, 2026 Yankees–Angels event listed first five innings totals and a contract on whether a run would score in the first inning. On Kalshi, a June 9, 2026 Rangers–Royals market offered a ladder of contracts on Royals starter Stephen Kolek recording 2+, 3+, or 4+ strikeouts.

World Series winner: a season long contract on which team wins the championship rather than a single game. It's the headline market and the last to resolve.

League pennant: which team wins the AL or NL and reaches the World Series.

Division and postseason qualification: whether a team wins its division or claims a wildcard spot from one of the postseason places reserved for the best teams that didn't win their division. Twelve teams make the postseason—six from each league.

Awards and statistical leaders: a season long markets on MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and leaders such as home runs.

Labor and schedule markets: contracts on off the field events, such as whether owners and players sign a new collective bargaining agreement, the labor contract that governs the sport, by a deadline, or whether the season starts on time.

Market

What it settles on

When it resolves

Game result

Winner of a single game, with a tie resolving 50-50

After the final out; For postponed game’s: market stays open until the makeup game is played; For a game canceled with no makeup: resolves 50-50.

Run totals

Combined runs over or under a set line, for the full game or the first five innings

After the final out; After the 5th inning for first five totals; Postponed and canceled games follow the same rules as game results.

Player props

A player's stat line in one game, such as strikeouts

Game day

World Series winner

Team that wins the 2026 World Series, based on official MLB information. Each team resolves “No” once it’s eliminated.

October 31, 2026 at the latest. If no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, Polymarket’s market resolves to “Other”.

League pennant

AL or NL champion

End of each League Championship Series: by October 19, 2026 for the NL and October 20, 2026 for the AL

Division / postseason berth

Division title or wild-card spot

When a team clinches or is eliminated, and no later than the last day of the regular season (September 26 in 2027)

Awards and leaders

MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, home runs

Mid-November 2026 for awards. End of the regular season for statistical leaders.

Labor / schedule

CBA deal or season start by a set date

Date named in the contract

For how contracts are priced, traded before settlement, and resolved, seehow prediction market pricing works.

What moves MLB prediction market prices

Starting pitchers

The starting pitcher is usually the single biggest input. Inbasketball orfootball, the same core players appear every game. In baseball, each team typically rotates through five starting pitchers, so the same two teams can be priced very differently on consecutive nights depending on who is on the mound. When a team announces a starter, or scratches one shortly before first pitch, game result and run total contracts can reprice within minutes. Bullpen fatigue is a second order input that matters more in late innings and in the postseason.

Single baseball games near 50/50

Individual games are close to coin flips. Even the best MLB teams typically lose a large share of their games, and the worst teams win a fair number. The 2001 Seattle Mariners, who tied the MLB record with 116 wins, lost 46 games—a .716 winning percentage. Because MLB games are relatively competitive, single-game prices can be less concentrated among heavy favorites than in sports with stronger favorites, although the exact market-price range varies by matchup and sportsbook.

The 162 game per team MLB season

162 games per season clear out the noise because any single game carries little information. Season long outright markets may move through the summer, with the pace depending on team performance, injuries, schedule strength, and market information. Short MLB postseason series

The postseason compresses everything into short series: . Short series give weaker teams a real chance to advance, so outright prices can swing sharply on a single game—especially in the best of three round. A team's top two or three starting pitchers also matter far more in October, because rotations shorten and off days let top starters pitch more often.

Ballparks and weather variations

Ballparks and weather move run totals. Parks play differently: altitude in Denver, short fences in some stadiums, marine air in others. Wind, temperature, and humidity change how far the ball carries. Rain also creates settlement risk: a postponed or suspended game may settle differently from one that's completed, so the contract terms for each market spell out what happens if a game isn't played as scheduled. For how settlement and disputes work, seehow prediction markets resolve.

The MLB trade deadline

The trade deadline, typically in late July or early August, is when contenders add pitching and rebuilding teams sell. It's usually the sharpest single repricing window for postseason, pennant, and World Series contracts during the season.

How small advantages compound during the MLB season

Small advantages compound, then October resets them. A game contract at $0.58 implies roughly a 58% chance of winning that night. A World Series contract at $0.15 implies about a 15% title chance.

Over 162 games, a team's modest nightly advantage adds up to a division title. In a best of five series, it can disappear in three games. For terminology, seeprediction markets concepts and terminology.

How the 2026 MLB lockout deadline affects prediction markets

The current collective bargaining agreement, or CBA, expires at 11:59 pm ET on December 1, 2026. If no new agreement is reached, owners are widely expected to lock out the players, barring them from working until a new deal is signed. It would be the first work stoppage since the 2021–22 lockout, which began December 2, 2021 and ended March 10, 2022, delaying Opening Day by a week.

The main dispute centers on pay structure. Sportico reported in August 2026 that MLB owners had proposed a hard salary cap of $245 million with a $171 million floor, which the MLB Players Association opposes. In October 2026, MLB also proposed a 154 game season starting in 2029, according to ESPN.

That has made labor a tradable category. As of September 2026, Kalshi's new CBA agreement market priced a deal before its December 2 cutoff at about 5%, and its gave a full season of 2,425 or more games about a 48% chance. Those numbers will move with every report from the bargaining table.

A lockout also affects ordinary baseball markets. During the 2021–22 lockout, MLB froze signings and trades involving players on 40 man rosters, which stalled much of the offseason. A long freeze delays the roster moves that normally reprice 2027 World Series and pennant outrights through the winter, and a shortened season would mean fewer games to separate contenders. That means more noise and potentially more volatile outright pricing.

MLB key dates: 2026 postseason through 2027

Date

Phase / event

Markets affected

October 11–20, 2026

MLB Championship Series

Pennant markets resolve; World Series field set

October 23–31, 2026

World Series 2026

2026 title resolves

November 2026

Free agency opens; awards announced

2027 outrights reprice on signings; award markets settle

December 1, 2026

CBA expires

Labor markets; potential lockout freezes roster moves

February 19, 2027

Spring training scheduled to open

Rotation and injury news reprices 2027 outrights

March 24, 2027

Opening night

Daily game markets begin; season start labor markets resolve

March 25, 2027

Opening day

Daily game markets begin; season start labor markets resolve

July 13, 2027

All-Star Game at Wrigley Field

Midseason check on award races

Late July / early August 2027

Trade deadline

Sharpest regular season repricing of postseason and title contracts

September 26, 2027

Scheduled regular season finale

Division and wildcard markets resolve

Late September 2027

Postseason start

Short series volatility returns

Late October 2027

World Series

2027 title resolves

Sources: ; MLB, 2027 regular season schedule; MLB, 2027 spring training schedule. 2027 postseason and World Series dates are projected. All 2027 dates assume no work stoppage and the current 162 game format.

How MLB prediction markets trade through the season

The 2026 postseason: Dodgers and Brewers meet in the NLCS starting October 11, and the Rays face the Guardians in the ALCS. Game 1 of the 2026 World Series starts on Friday, October 23, at the home park of the league champion with the better regular season record, with a potential Game 7 on Saturday, October 31. Off days between games let teams lean on their best starters, which tightens the link between rotation depth and series pricing. For current World Series prices, seethis week's trending prediction markets.

The offseason: Baseball Writers' Association of America announces MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year winners in November, settling those markets. Free agency and trades then drive 2027 outrights—a team signing a starter can move its World Series contract more than any single regular season week. In 2026, that window collides with the December 1 CBA deadline.

Spring training: camps are . Spring training results usually carry little weight, but injury news and position battles feed into season long contracts, especially when starting pitchers are involved.

Opening Day: , released July 16, 2026, opens with a single game on March 24, followed by 14 games on March 25—the earliest traditional Opening Day in MLB history. Early season outright prices tend to move more because there's little current season data.

The summer grind: from May through July, the daily schedule produces the heaviest volume of game result markets. The All-Star Game at Wrigley Field on July 13, 2027 marks the informal midpoint for award races.

September: division and wildcard contracts harden toward $0 or $1, and the final weekend can resolve several at once.

How and where to trade MLB prediction markets

Baseball's schedule makes it a daily market. From late March to late September, a new slate of game contracts opens almost every day, and most of the information that moves them lands in the hours before first pitch: confirmed starting pitchers, lineups, weather, and late scratches.

MetaMask Predictions, powered byPolymarket, lets eligible users trade baseball contracts including the MLB, such as World Series and game result contracts, from MetaMask Mobile. In March 2026, MLB named Polymarket its official prediction market exchange and signed an information sharing agreement with the CFTC focused on game integrity. Market listings vary by platform. The labor contracts cited above trade on Kalshi.

As of October 2026, Predictions isn't available in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Australia, Singapore, or several other countries, including those on the US sanctions list. TheMetaMask Predictions support page lists current restrictions and the steps to trade in the app. For platform fees,liquidity, and US state access, seeKalshi vs Polymarket.

MLB teams by league and division

League

Division

Teams

American

East

Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays

American

Central

Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins

American

West

Athletics, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers

National

East

Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals

National

Central

Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals

National

West

Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants

Frequently asked questions about MLB prediction markets

MLB prediction markets are contracts tied to baseball events during the regular season and playoffs, including the World Series winner, each league pennant, division titles and wildcard spots, awards such as MVP and Cy Young, single game results, and some off field events such as labor deals. Each is priced between $0 and $1 to represent the outcome's implied probability. Contracts settle at $1 if correct and $0 if not, and can usually be sold before they resolve.

MLB prediction markets are contracts tied to baseball events during the regular season and playoffs, including the World Series winner, each league pennant, division titles and wildcard spots, awards such as MVP and Cy Young, single game results, and some off field events such as labor deals. Each is priced between $0 and $1 to represent the outcome's implied probability. Contracts settle at $1 if correct and $0 if not, and can usually be sold before they resolve.

The World Series champion market is usually the most heavily traded MLB contract. On Polymarket, the 2026 World Series champion market hadmore than $43 million traded as of October 6, 2026. Daily game result markets add steady volume from late March to late September.

The World Series champion market is usually the most heavily traded MLB contract. On Polymarket, the 2026 World Series champion market hadmore than $43 million traded as of October 6, 2026. Daily game result markets add steady volume from late March to late September.

Starting pitchers move MLB prices because each team rotates through about five starters, and the gap between a team's best and worst starter is large. The same matchup can be priced very differently from one night to the next depending on who pitches. Starter announcements and late scratches are among the fastest moving events in MLB markets.

Starting pitchers move MLB prices because each team rotates through about five starters, and the gap between a team's best and worst starter is large. The same matchup can be priced very differently from one night to the next depending on who pitches. Starter announcements and late scratches are among the fastest moving events in MLB markets.

MLB single game prices sit close to 50/50 because baseball has more game to game randomness than most major sports. Even dominant teams lose often, so single game contracts rarely price a team as an overwhelming favorite. Regular season markets absorb that randomness over the 162 games that each team plays.

MLB single game prices sit close to 50/50 because baseball has more game to game randomness than most major sports. Even dominant teams lose often, so single game contracts rarely price a team as an overwhelming favorite. Regular season markets absorb that randomness over the 162 games that each team plays.

A rained out MLB game settles according to that market's own contract rules, which vary by platform. Postponed, suspended, and shortened games can each be handled differently. The contract terms listed with each market define how it settles.

A rained out MLB game settles according to that market's own contract rules, which vary by platform. Postponed, suspended, and shortened games can each be handled differently. The contract terms listed with each market define how it settles.

If the CBA expires on December 1, 2026 without a deal, a lockout would likely freeze signings and trades, delaying the roster moves that usually reprice 2027 outrights. It also creates direct markets on whether a deal is reached or the season starts on time. A shortened season would mean fewer games and potentially more volatile pricing.

If the CBA expires on December 1, 2026 without a deal, a lockout would likely freeze signings and trades, delaying the roster moves that usually reprice 2027 outrights. It also creates direct markets on whether a deal is reached or the season starts on time. A shortened season would mean fewer games and potentially more volatile pricing.

MLB prediction markets often shift following starting pitcher announcements and late scratches, the trade deadline, the final weeks of the regular season, and the postseason, where short series can swing outrights on a single game. Overall MLB season outright winner markets also reprice in the offseason on major free agent signings.

MLB prediction markets often shift following starting pitcher announcements and late scratches, the trade deadline, the final weeks of the regular season, and the postseason, where short series can swing outrights on a single game. Overall MLB season outright winner markets also reprice in the offseason on major free agent signings.

Yes, MLB prediction markets keep trading in the offseason, when next season's World Series, pennant, and award outrights reprice on free agent signings and trades. In 2026–27, labor markets on the CBA and the start of the 2027 season add an offseason category that doesn't exist in most years.

Yes, MLB prediction markets keep trading in the offseason, when next season's World Series, pennant, and award outrights reprice on free agent signings and trades. In 2026–27, labor markets on the CBA and the start of the 2027 season add an offseason category that doesn't exist in most years.

MLB prediction markets trade on Polymarket, which MLB , and on Kalshi, a CFTC regulated US exchange. MetaMask Predictions offers Polymarket's MLB markets on MetaMask Mobile in eligible regions. As of October 2026, MetaMask Predictions isn't available in the US, Canada, the UK, and several other countries, and Kalshi's sports contracts face legal challenges in some US states.

MLB prediction markets trade on Polymarket, which MLB , and on Kalshi, a CFTC regulated US exchange. MetaMask Predictions offers Polymarket's MLB markets on MetaMask Mobile in eligible regions. As of October 2026, MetaMask Predictions isn't available in the US, Canada, the UK, and several other countries, and Kalshi's sports contracts face legal challenges in some US states.

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