2026 Holiday Sales Forecast: $1 Trillion in Spending, but There’s a Catch

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts US holiday retail sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion in November and December 2026, the first time the season tops $1 trillion. The catch: higher prices account for a large share of that growth, so shoppers are spending more without buying much more.

Key takeaways

• NRF expects $1.013 trillion in holiday sales, up from $972 billion in 2025.
• NRF says nearly half the growth comes from real spending; the rest comes from higher prices.
• The $1 trillion includes stores and online. Online is a smaller but faster-growing slice.
• For sellers, more revenue doesn’t automatically mean more profit, so margins and inventory accuracy matter more this year.

What is the holiday sales forecast for 2026?

Two major forecasts point to stronger holiday sales than last year:

Both forecasts cover November 1 through December 31 and exclude auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. Last year, NRF reported holiday sales grew 3.1% to $972 billion.

Forecasts can miss. Visa predicted 4.6% growth for the 2025 holidays, and its preliminary data came in at 4.2%.

The catch: are shoppers buying more or just paying more?

Mostly paying more. The $1.013 trillion figure measures dollars spent, not the number of items sold.

NRF’s chief economist said nearly half of the 4.2% growth should come from real spending, with the rest driven by higher prices. NRF expects core goods prices to rise 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025. Visa’s outlook is more cautious, with inflation-adjusted growth of about 1.1% [verify].

Either way, a big share of the headline number is inflation. Picture buying the same gift list as last year and paying more for it. Your spending went up, but you didn’t buy anything extra.

Shoppers are also trading down. Visa found that roughly one-third of shoppers earning under $100,000 plan to switch to cheaper brands or stores for gifts [verify]. They’re still buying for everyone on their list, just with a sharper eye on value.

How much will shoppers spend online this holiday season?

The $1 trillion forecast includes both stores and online sales, so it isn’t an eCommerce number. Adobe forecasts US online holiday spending of $275.1 billion this season [verify].

Online is growing faster than stores. In the 2025 holidays, Visa’s data showed online retail spending up 7.8%, even though physical stores still made up 73% of payment volume.

Shoppers are also starting earlier. NRF research shows 43% of holiday shoppers plan to begin before November [verify]. Big retailers have stretched their calendars to match, including Walmart’s three sales running from November 12 to December 2. For online sellers, that means orders arrive in waves across November and December, not just over Black Friday weekend.

What does the 2026 holiday forecast mean for small sellers?

Shoppers are still spending, but they’re price-conscious, and your own costs are likely up too. That makes this a margin season more than a volume season. Three things matter most.

Protect your margins on every order

When revenue rises mostly from price, small cost leaks eat the gain. Shipping is often the biggest one during peak season, when carrier surcharges kick in. Compare rates before the rush and set free-shipping thresholds that still leave room for profit. [link: shipping rate calculator]

Don’t lose sales to stockouts or oversells

Price-conscious shoppers compare options, and if your item shows out of stock, they buy elsewhere. Overselling is just as costly: a canceled order means a refund, an unhappy customer, and sometimes a marketplace penalty. Keep inventory accurate across every channel, and reorder best sellers before suppliers slow down for the holidays. [link: Inventory Reorder Calculator] Here’s how to prevent overselling when demand spikes.

Compete on value, not just discounts

You don’t have to match big-box prices. Clear delivery dates, gift bundles, and honest product details all give shoppers a reason to buy from you. If you sell on several channels, our guide to multichannel selling covers how to stay visible and organized.

Frequently asked questions

What is the NRF holiday sales forecast for 2026?

NRF forecasts US retail sales in November and December 2026 will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. That compares with 3.1% growth to $972 billion in 2025.

Is this the first time holiday sales have topped $1 trillion?

Yes, if the forecast holds. It would make 2026 the first holiday season above $1 trillion in NRF’s measure.

Does the $1 trillion forecast include online shopping only?

No. The NRF forecast includes both online and in-store retail sales. It excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

Are shoppers buying more gifts in 2026?

Only modestly. NRF says nearly half of its 4.2% growth comes from real spending, with the rest from higher prices. Visa’s forecast puts inflation-adjusted growth closer to 1.1% [verify].

How much will Americans spend online this holiday season?

Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US online holiday spending for 2026 [verify]. Online sales have been growing faster than in-store sales.

What does the 2026 holiday forecast mean for small eCommerce businesses?

Shoppers are still spending but watching value closely. Small sellers should protect margins on shipping, keep inventory accurate across channels to avoid stockouts and oversells, and compete on value rather than deep discounts.

A trillion-dollar season still comes down to each order

The forecasts say shoppers are ready to spend, but carefully. For small sellers, the winners won’t be the ones with the biggest discounts. They’ll be the ones who keep margins intact, keep stock accurate, and get every order out on time.

Getting ready for the holiday rush? Start your free trial with Ordoro and keep shipping, inventory, and orders running smoothly through the busiest weeks of the year.